Thursday, May 17, 2007

What is the Forex market and how does it work?

By: David Yuri



Forex is one of the largest financial markets in the world. If we were to compare it with other markets, we would discover that Forex is unmatched in terms of potential profit and liquidity. Forex (Foreign exchange market) is a term used to describe the trading process of the world’s many currencies. Among the currencies commonly traded are: the US dollar, the Euro, the Canadian Dollar, the British pound, the Yen, the Swiss Franc and the Australian dollar.

Forex trading is a difficult concept to grasp, but it has a lot of advantages. First of all, it is not conducted by a central exchange office. What many people are unaware of is that Forex trading is done everywhere at any time – online, over the telephone, through electronic networks or through what is simply called the ‘interbank’. Online Forex trading is one of the most popular trading options for investors. The major groups of investors in the Forex market are: banks, corporations, governments, investment funds and traders. These investors use what is called ‘external controls’, a set of rules and guidelines that control the trade and which can be considered the basis for their work. Individual traders however can make an exception to this set of rules.

Forex can be quite profitable because there are always buyers and sellers willing to trade and the business is done with no commissions, but it can also be quite risky. Despite the risks, Forex trading is becoming a favorite of currency traders and soon it will take the place of stock exchange markets. Forex trading can be very catching, but also a sure way to lose money. Before you go into trading, you should accept the fact that risk and volatility cannot be separated from the Forex market. It is impossible to trade without taking calculated risks as well as accepting the possibility to lose. There are many reasons for losing money on the Forex market among which brokers include: the tendency to avoid risks, too little discipline and patience, impossible expectations and little understanding of the dynamics of Forex trading.

There are also a few musts in this trading industry: the proper equipment and a high-speed Internet connection (broadband is the best in terms of stability), the capital you can afford losing, a broker (inquiries must be made about the reliability of his trading platform), charts and technical analysis, good entry and exit signals and a golden rule - always check out the Forex trading news in order to be informed.

One of the latest Forex trading news is the possibility of using day-trading services, meaning that the trading is done on a daily or even hourly basis in the foreign currency markets. Before you start your trading day, it is imperative that you are aware when Forex trading news affecting the currency pair being traded is scheduled to be released. There are a lot of Forex trading news that can and will affect the trade of a currency. That is why you always need to be informed. You must know where you can fiind these Forex trading news, how to interpret them and what effect they are likely to have on the market. By getting to know the Forex trading news you avoid costly learning mistakes and develop a solid strategy based on the power of knowledge. That is one on the major drawbacks of Forex: the vast amount of information that has to be read and, more importantly, learned (that includes Forex trading news also).

It is vital to have a strategy and this doesn’t refer to making money. By studying the Forex trading news and also a couple of docs provided by professional brokers, you will be able to choose the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risks.

Remember that there is no better time to trade that when Forex trading news is released. This is the time when big players adjust their position and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow. Do not take rash - emotion-based decisions can be the worst you’ve ever made -, but be firm, conscious and trade in the direction the price is going. Confidence comes from successful trading.

Do not let yourself be fooled. A lot of Forex brokers are in this business only to make money from inexperience traders. So, in order to escape being tricked, stay informed. Check out Forex trading news, watch for the moments they are released and try to be detached in order to retain your clarity of mind. Learn to read the source documents of Forex trading news and events.

Trading on the Forex market involves staying current on currency exchange rates and this can be easily done with the help of Forex trading news. Keep in mind that it takes concentration and knowledge to succeed on the Forex market and you don’t need to invest a lot of money to make profits.

Pay attention to the guidance provided by the brokering companies about trading strategies and to the data charts that guide you when to buy or sell. They also teach you to interpret the fluctuations on the market and how to make the most of the moment when the latest Forex trading news is released. Proper training is the key. A trained trader will know the market like the back of his hand and will be able to meet the expectations.

When trading, the latest Forex trading news about the currency market can make a difference in the day’s profit. So no matter if you go online or not, try to remember that the potential in the Forex market is in the volatility, not in its tranquility. Stick to your strategies and play the odds the market gives you. Who knows? You might be the next Donald Trump.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

FOREX: Starting your own trading

By: Andrey Moraru


The presented article is intended for those who just turned their eyes toward FOREX. Beginning traders who are still learning the basics of the foreign exchange market may also find something of interest here. While experienced traders won’t gain anything worth their time reading this article.

Basically there are 4 steps which can be defined as “must do“ for those who wish to start trading FOREX. Though, their order is not particularly important, the more important part is their content, to which the great attention and responsibility must be paid.

First step is finding a right FOREX broker which will be your main tool in trading. You can have a great strategy, good technical analysis skills or an outstanding intuition but you will eventually fail if you choose a bad broker. A good FOREX broker is one that will not still your money, will be doing real trading with your positions, supports your preferred deposit/withdraw methods and has fast and helpful user support service. It is nice if a broker is registered with some sort of governmental financial commission. One of the most important aspects of the broker is it’s trading platform – but for a new trader this part is not so important as for expert traders. Still you’ll probably want to trade with some powerful and informative platform as a MetaTrader or its analogs. For new traders the more important is a demo account which can be used to trade virtual money while you are training your FOREX skills. If you are new trader, start only with the demo account! Don’t lose your money on your first mistakes!

Second step is learning the basics of FOREX trading. If you already found your FOREX broker, you will easily get all information from its website or user support. There are many articles and websites dedicated to FOREX basics in the World Wide Web. All you need to do is just google for “forex trading basics” and you’ll find everything you wanted and even more. This step shouldn’t be underestimated, because trying to trade without even understanding how the market works is not only very risky, it will also become boring very soon.

Third step is about education. FOREX trading education is not similar to any other education you probably have got in your life. FOREX market is very chaotic, so is the education – there are no fixed rules and all time laws, it is unstable and dynamical. So, to be on the top you must learn new things about FOREX regularly and constantly. Try to read as many books, articles other traders’ opinions as you can. The more you learn, the more educated you will be. And with good FOREX education you will be able to create very sophisticated and effective trading strategies.

Fourth step is a final one; at least I consider it to be a final one. To achieve the successful results in the FOREX market you need to develop your own strategies. While you are learning you’ll be satisfied with known strategies and probably even FOREX signals. But true goal which leads to successful FOREX trading is to develop your own strategies. Not one strategy, but to follow the market day by day, developing new strategies and improving those which began to fail. And this comes not only to the trading strategy (this part is obvious), but also to the money management strategy (this part is often underestimated). While you gain experience in trading you’ll inevitably build such strategies that will fit your trading style, you character and your life as best as they can. And after that, trading will become a real pleasure, which will eventually lead to your financial freedom.

Friday, May 11, 2007

5 Tips For winning Trading

Copyright © 2007 Billy Williams

There are lots of people who aspire to become profitable traders in today’s market environment. Many people who come to trade stocks, options, and other securities are attracted to the potential of making a lot of money but, often, aren’t aware of what it takes to be able to make money consistently, position yourself to make windfall profits, and all the while doing this while protecting your account from excessive and/or unnecessary losses.

The good news is that there is a wealth of resources to help you but the bad news is that often a beginning trader doesn’t know where to start. It is the focus of this article to give you direction on what areas to focus your efforts into in order to improve and trade successfully.

The first step is to focus on is learning the language of the industry. Learn what a stop limit order is or what a “handle” means and how they relate to your trading. If you run into a term that you don’t understand, just “google” it, then study the meaning. It is extremely hard for you to know what an article is saying or a veteran trader is talking about if you don’t know the basic terms of stock orders, option definitions, or how the futures market works if you ever hope to trade them.

The second step is to learn is how to read price action. Price action is basically the language of a stock or a given market. It tells you what the stock or market has done and is likely to do again. Know how to read trends on a chart. Is the stock in a long term bullish trend? Are oil prices in an intermediate bear market? Is there evidence of a possible trend change in oil futures from an intermediate bear market to a long term bull market? Learn how to read price action and it will make you rich.

The third step to successful trading is learning how to control your risk. Almost every successful trader that has survived long term and made money long term knows how to control his risk to the markets. I personally know a professional hedge fund manager that was short the German mark when the Berlin Wall came down but survived to make record returns on his funds that year. The same trader was long the Dow futures when the 9-11 terrorist attacks happened and went on to beat the returns on the S&P 500 that year. I was personally long a lot of oil and refinery stocks when Hurricane Rita hit Texas but I still made money as those stocks plummeted because I know how to manage my trades. Learn how to assess and control risk and you will increase your odds in becoming a master trader.

The fourth step is having an “edge” when you trade. An edge in trading is anything that gives you an advantage in trading. The more edges you can have, the better chances you have to make outstanding profits. An edge can be superior chart reading skills, successful stock selection, money management, etc. I know of a very famous and successful stock trader that use the 3 edges I just wrote to take an $11,000 stock account and made $48,000,000 in 23 months! He has been interviewed in almost all major financial publications and has set a world record in the greatest returns in the briefest time category. Study the great traders and you will get a glimpse of the edges they use to become trading legends.

The fifth step is having mental discipline and emotional balance. Most of trading is mental. You can give two traders the same exact trading system for stocks, futures, or options but, invariably, they will end up with different results. Why? There mental and emotional states may not support them in being successful with system they were given. One trader may experience nervousness and anxiety which causes him to exit his trades to early, hesitate in taking entry signals, or taking profits too early and missing the big moves. The other trader may have the discipline and control to take each trade as it comes with no other focus other than to follow the system as it should knowing that the losses he may experience are just part of the game and that he will make his greatest profits over time using this system. In my opinion, learn how to use your mental discipline and emotional control to support you in becoming a successful trader and not work against you.

These five steps that have been outlined will go a long way in helping you become more skillful and profitable. In time, you may want to come back and begin with the “basics” of this lesson to keep your focus and help you stay on the path of being the best trader that you can be.

Good trading.

Mr. Williams is a businessman and veteran of Desert Storm who has been trading stocks, options, and futures for almost 15 years. He attended the University of Texas Pan American and studied finance and has extensive training in systemic trading and technical analysis along with the insight that comes from suffering the highs and lows from trading for many years. He trades professionally and has published several articles on stock picking and trading options as well as operate an educational website with the goal of helping aspiring traders as well as experienced traders achieve their goals in the stock market. http://www.stockoptionsystem.com

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Stocks vs. Bonds

What time a government or corporation needs money to pay for a special project or expansion, it can fund operations with cash saved in the organization or with cash raised by selling securities. If the organization chooses to sell securities, it can sell bonds. Bonds represent a promise made by the issuer to repay principal and interest to the bondholder at prescribed intervals during a prescribed time period. When you think bond, think loan. And think of yourself as the lender because you supply the bond issuer with money that will usually be repaid to you as periodic interest payments. Bonds mature when the prescribed time period elapses.

Bonds are more defined and stable than stocks. Whereas the life of a bond is time-limited, your stocks can be passed on to your heirs and to your heirs' heirs for generations after you buy them. Bond payments are also more fixed than stock payments because the issuer promises a fixed interest payment at prescribed intervals. Dividends, which are the cash payments made to owners of stocks, can rise and fall unpredictably -- or even cease entirely -- for any given stock.

Unlike bond interest payments, the value of bonds can fluctuate just like stock values, but the changes are less volatile and the reasons for those changes are different. Stock values change as a result of market perceptions about the success of the stock issuer. Bond values fluctuate in response to changes in the issuer's ability to repay and to changes in the prevailing interest rates. For example, if a bond issuer suddenly encounters reduced sales that restrict its cash flow and ability to fulfill its promise to pay interest and principal to the bondholder, the market will treat the bond as a risky investment. And rising interest rates suppress bond values, while falling rates pump them up.

Governments back the payment of interest and principal with their taxing authority, but corporations back bonds with the corporation's ability to earn money. Corporate bonds are, therefore, generally riskier and pay higher interest than government issues. When the market questions a bond issuer's ability to repay interest or principal, the bond is called "junk." Junk bonds usually pay high interest to compensate buyers for the high risk they assume when buying them.

Bond issuers can choose, before they issue their bonds, how to time repaying their debt. Most bond repayment timing consists of bi-annual interest payments and principal repayment when the bond matures. Alternatively, bond issuers can postpone payments until maturity when they pay all interest and principal. Even if the bond issuer selects either of these, a brokerage firm can buy the bonds and resell the cash flows in different formats. For example, they can take the principal portion of a bond and sell it at a deep discount and not pay any interest on it. Then they can take the interest portion of the bond and sell that as a separate security that promises only interest payments without any principal payment.

Category of Bonds:

Commercial Bonds

• Mortgage bonds -- Issued for the purchase of certain assets that are pledged as collateral

• Equipment Trust Certificates -- Serial bonds secured by specific equipment

• Debentures -- Unsecured promissory notes

• Income bonds -- The indenture states that interest will be paid only if the issuer earns the money to make interest payments

• Convertible bonds -- Can be exchanged for prestated number of issuer's common stock

• Variable Interest bonds -- Pay interest rate tied to an indicator of prevailing rates such as Treasury bills

• Zero-Coupon bonds -- Pay all interest and principal upon maturity; also known as discount bond

• Euro-bonds -- Issued outside the United States and denominated in U.S. dollars


Government Bonds

• U.S. Treasury bills -- Zero-coupon issues with maturities less than one year

• U.S. Treasury notes -- Bonds with maturities from one to 10 years

• U.S. Treasury bonds -- Bonds with maturities greater than 10 years

• GNMA -- Mortgage pass-through bonds issued by the Government National Mortgage Association, a U.S. federal government agency

• FHLMC -- Mortgage pass-through bonds issued by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, a U.S. federal government agency

• Collateralized Mortgage Obligations -- Fixed income securities created from mortgage-backed securities (like GNMAs) designed to control risks

• General Obligation Municipal bonds -- Local or state government issue backed by the taxing authority of the issuer, pay federally tax-free interest

• Revenue Municipal bonds -- Local, state or agency issues backed by the revenue earned on the funded project

• Series EE and HH bonds -- Issued by the U.S. Treasury in small denominations to appeal to individual investors

How to Value Bonds

Bond issues assure to repay the features value of their bond.Features value is the amount borrowed by the issuer, and is usually expressed in increments of $1,000, $5,000 or $10,000. Since the bond market assesses prevailing and expected interest rates, the interest paid on comparable issues and the issuer's ability to keep its promise, the market might not value the bond according to its features value. If it considers the bond to be a risky investment, it might only be willing to pay a percentage of face value, which is called a discount. If the market thinks this issue is a great deal, it might pay a premium for the bond.

The value of a bond is the "present value" of future interest and principal payments. Present value is absolute cash payments adjusted for the timing of the payments. Since a future payment is worth less than a payment made today, timing is important. If you have to wait a year for a payment, you are losing the interest you could have earned by investing in a bond with quarterly payments and then using those payments to invest in something else. For example, say that you are considering buying a bond that pays both interest and principal upon maturity one year from now. The absolute cash payment will be $1,100 and today's market price, according to your broker, is $1,020. You do some research and find bonds with the same maturity and risk that yield 5 percent. This little formula calculates the present value of the bond:


Future payment / (1 + yield)

If payment will not come for two or more years, the denominator (1 + yield) is raised by an exponent equal to the number of years before payment. In the example above, the present value is ($1,100 / (1 + .05) =) $1,047.62. Since the present value is greater than today's market price, this bond is a bargain at the broker's quoted price of $1,020. This formula can be applied to the future interest and principal payments of all bonds.

Evaluating Bond Performance

As we've seen in previous lessons, sound investment practice includes the periodic evaluation of your investment performance. The two-step process below compares the performance of individual investments, grouped into categories, with available indices. An index is a group of bonds selected to represent a certain type of bond. Examples of indices include high-grade (safe) corporate bonds and Treasury bonds.

In the first step of the process, you compare the performance of all bonds you own with an appropriate index. If, for example, your high-grade corporate bonds earned 5 percent during the prescribed period, which is usually a year, and a good high-grade corporate bond index earned 2 percent, you can conclude that your corporate bonds are performing well.


The second step compares individual bonds with appropriate indices. This step identifies high- and low-performing investments and helps you to decide whether you should sell or stand pat.

The decision to sell is driven by the goals and preferences expressed in your investment plan. If you don't have the time and expertise to do this kind of evaluation yourself, mutual funds offer an outstanding and potentially lucrative alternative to investing in individual bonds and stocks.

Investing in Mutual Funds


What Is a Mutual Fund?

A mutual fund is an investment cooperative managed by an investment company. As in other cooperatives, (such as credit unions), mutual fund investors pool their assets together and employ an investment company with investment professionals and administrators who conduct the day-to-day business of managing the fund. Each mutual fund is distinguished by an investment objective. For example, the Vanguard 500 Index fund invests only in stocks comprising the Standard & Poor 500 index.

The popularity of mutual funds exploded in the 1980s and 1990s, mainly because they offer more benefits to individual investors than individual stocks do. They reduce investment costs and provide professional investment management while enabling individual investors to diversify portfolios very easily.

Reduced Costs & Diversification

Brokers charge commissions on individual security prices that can quickly add up in a well-diversified portfolio, eating into your returns. Most Internet discount brokers charge $20 to $50 commissions to buy and sell one round lot (100 shares). Full-service brokers, who also provide investment advice, charge much more. If you owned 20 stocks, their round-trip discount commission could total approximately $1,000. Since investors pool all their money into mutual funds, they enjoy economies of scale in management and transaction fees, which usually lowers the cost of broker fees.

Mutual funds also enable investors with small- and medium-sized portfolios to diversify in an efficient manner. You could create a minimally diversified portfolio on your own with $50,000, but some experts say that you'd need to invest $100,000 to do the job right. In contrast, a mutual fund will allow you to invest in all 500 stocks comprising the S&P 500 Index with only $1,000.

The Impact of Fees and Loads

Mutual fund investors still need to pay attention to fees and loads despite the economies of scale they enjoy. The cost of mutual funds assumes two forms: periodic fees and transaction fees.

Periodic fees, which are also known as management fees, are assessed at least annually as a percentage of the value of your investment. The percentage varies significantly from one investment company to another, depending on whether the fund invests in stocks or bonds and whether it tracks an index or is actively managed to beat an index.

Fixed-income funds and index funds charge the lowest fees. Fees exceeding 1 percent are common, though you can find funds charging less than 0.25 percent. Actively managed stock funds charge the highest periodic fees, often exceeding 2.75 percent per year.

Transaction fees, known as loads, are also expressed as a percent of investment value. The charge applies when you buy and/or sell the investment. Most loads are less than 5 percent. No-load mutual funds charge periodic fees and, as the name implies, don't charge any transaction fees. These periodic fees, however, are often higher than load fund fees, so you need to be careful.

Culling Useful Information From the Prospectus

Investment companies are required to offer a prospectus when offering mutual fund shares for sale. The prospectus details everything about the fund. Though the prospectus is filled with legalese and technical terms, a novice can cull the vast majority of essential information by following these five simple steps:

1. Select a prospectus from one of the widely known investment companies.

2. Read the investment objective on the first page. The objective states whether the mutual fund invests in fixed income, equity or both, giving clues about how risky the fund is. Be on the lookout for an elaboration of the objective deeper in the prospectus.

3. Identify the cost of the mutual fund. Loads are usually stated on the inside cover. Periodic fees are reported in a table, which is usually found in the first few pages. Look for a tabled column or row entitled "Ratio of expenses to average net assets." Data are grouped to report annual results. While you're here, also find the turnover rate, the percent of the portfolio replaced each year. A 100 percent turnover rate means everything in the portfolio at the beginning of the year was sold and replaced once during the year. Higher turnover increases costs and may indicate excessive turnover due to bad investment decisions. You should favor income stock funds and fixed income funds with turnover rates less than about 100 percent. As you approach more risky investments such as small growth stock funds, 150 percent is not uncommon.

4. Examine historic investment returns. Usually you can find a table or chart illustrating returns. If you can't find this, go to the table you examined in step 3 and find either the two columns or rows (depending on the table's format) with these headings: net asset value at end of year and total from investment operations. To calculate annual return, divide one year's total from investment operations by the immediately previous year's net asset value at the end of the year. Compare annual returns with an appropriate mutual fund index to evaluate how well the fund has performed in relation to its peers.


5. Find a section with the word "risk" in the title. Risk discussions are usually straightforward, and lay out worst-case scenarios.

There's more in the prospectus, but these steps will be more than enough to get you started. The investment policy section is usually technical, but with time, practice and more experience you'll catch on. Be sure to keep the prospectus whenever you decide to buy a fund.

Taxes and Mutual Funds

Mutual funds have one major drawback: unlike taxes on individual investments, the federal income tax applies to all mutual fund earnings, even if you don't sell your shares.

And it doesn't take a CPA to imagine how painful this can be to an investor. Let's say you buy a growth fund and hold it for at least two years. In the first year, it earns 10 percent, and in the second year it earns 15 percent. You dutifully pay tax on your earnings without a second thought. But, since you could have reinvested this money, you should consider the taxes you pay for mutual funds as lost income.

If your mutual funds are invested in tax-favored accounts, you'll only have to pay taxes when you start drawing on your account.

Adopt a Consistent Mutual Fund Selection Process

With 10,000 mutual funds available, how are you going to find the best funds to achieve your goals? By the time you're finished researching all of them, you'll already be retired!

The best advice is to find a good book and use it until the pages get worn. The NEW Commonsense Guide to Mutual Funds by Mary Rowland delivers sound guidance and practical advice on selecting and managing mutual funds. Her list of 75 "Dos and Don'ts" lays the groundwork for a sensible approach to mutual funds.

Chaos characterizes the retail financial products industry. Every firm has a story to tell. While some tell it with colorful charts, others pummel us with performance data and index comparisons. Investors familiar with mutual fund advertisements would probably agree that it seems like most mutual funds are well aware of these two strategies and readily bombard us with them.


The investor's only defense is a written plan. A plan that identifies specifics and a firm strategy cuts through the blitz of advertisements and all the smooth sales pitches. A written plan leads to consistently applied mutual fund selection criteria. Get a book and write your plan.

Investment Considerations


The Effects of Taxes


Taxes reduce investment returns in two ways. First, federal and state taxes take a significant percentage out of each dollar an investor earns. Second, when the government takes its cut, you are unable to earn any returns on the money you paid in taxes.

When it comes to municipal bonds and treasuries, the issue of taxes present a small problem -- their interest payments are generally less than those of taxable bonds. A high-grade corporate bond might pay 6 percent, while a muni or Treasury with the same maturity might pay only 5 percent. You have to ask yourself one question: "Which investment yields a higher after-tax return?"


You'll only need to know two things and have access to a calculator in order to answer this question. The first piece of information is your marginal tax rate. The second is a little formula enabling conversion of taxable interest to non-taxable interest, and vice versa.

Calculating Your Marginal Tax Rate


The marginal tax rate is the rate you pay for each additional dollar of taxable income. To figure this out, you'll have to go digging through your files and find last year's federal and state tax tables. Find the row with the taxable income you expect this year. Subtract the lower "At least" value from the higher "But less than" amount. You'll need to use this number in the next step, so jot it down and hold onto it for a while.


Next, locate the associated income tax amount and then subtract from that value the tax owed for the range of incomes immediately below yours. Add the federal and state marginal tax rates, and you will arrive at your state and federal marginal tax rate.

Translating Taxable and Non-Taxable Rates

The non-taxable equivalent of a taxable interest payment is the stated payment rate multiplied by one minus the marginal rate. Let's say your marginal rate is 30 percent and a taxable bond pays 6 percent. The non-taxable equivalent is .06 times (1 - 0.3) = .042. The result of this calculation tells you that a muni issued in your state paying more than 4.2 percent will earn more after taxes than a taxable bond paying 6 percent. Looking at this from the other direction, the taxable equivalent of a non-taxable interest payment is the stated non-taxable payment rate divided by one minus the marginal rate. Continuing with the scenario we used in the example above, a muni from the state where you reside paying 4.2 percent is .42 divided by (1 - .3) = .06. The result of this calculation tells you that a taxable bond paying more than 6 percent will earn more after taxes than a non-taxable bond paying 4.2 percent.

Use only your state marginal tax rate for Treasuries, and only use the federal marginal rate for munis issued outside your home state.

Dollar Cost Averaging

Dollar cost averaging is one of the most powerful and simple wealth-enhancing techniques ever devised. Put the same amount of money into your investments at preset intervals. Consistently apply the practice indefinitely, and do so without respect to whether the market rises or falls.

Dollar cost averaging draws its power through consistent application and by forcing you to buy more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when prices are high. Here's an example of how dollar cost averaging works: Each month you write a check for $100 and deposit it into your stock fund. Let's say that in the first month you begin the plan, shares of a stock cost $10 dollars, so you buy 10 shares.

The second month, the stock market has skyrocketed. You buy 6.67 stock fund shares at $15 with your $100. So now, after the second month, you own a total of 16.67 stock fund shares. At this point, even though stock fund shares sell for $15, your average cost is only $12.

The markets will rise and fall from month to month. But over the long run, markets will rise in value. By practicing dollar cost averaging over a long period of time, you will always buy more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when prices are high. As a result, your cost per share will be less than their current market value. Besides instilling discipline in the investing process, dollar cost averaging results in more shares purchased at lower prices than prevailing prices. That translates to a sound long-term strategy for wealth enhancement.

Records: Keeping It Simple and Organized

It is a taxable event whenever you sell an investment or your investments pay a dividend or interest. Keeping good records helps you avoid paying more tax than you have to. Brokers and investment companies do most of the record keeping for you. They send you statements itemizing all of your transactions on, at the very least, a quarterly basis. Put all of these statements in chronological order, keeping a separate file for each individual investment. But even a good filing system serves only half of the record-keeping task.

Since files can get thick and unwieldy after a few years, you should also maintain a chronological journal by investment that records each transaction. If you make it a regular practice to record the transaction each time you receive a statement, you can save yourself a lot of trouble later on when you need to call on your records in an emergency situation.

It pays to keep things simple whenever possible. Avoid buying two mutual funds with the same objective unless you have a good reason to duplicate your investment. To keep from becoming overwhelmed, minimize the number of brokerage firms you employ so that the information comes from as few sources as possible. Using brokers that supply reports via the Internet can also lessen the burden if you can download the reports and file them electronically. Just be sure they are safe in case harm comes to your computer.

Evaluating Portfolio Performance

The investor's ability to apply his or her investment plan is an essential element of evaluating a portfolio. A good investment plan starts with an introspective assessment of your risk tolerance and financial goals. These can be at odds with each other, so it's important to reduce them to objective terms.

Let's say your goal is to become rich -- really rich. How will you know when you've become really rich? Define "rich" in terms of the value of your assets or income and a time horizon for achieving it. For example: My goal is to own investments worth $1,000,000, fixed assets worth $500,000 and liabilities not exceeding $250,000 by June 30, 2020.

You'll use investments as one of the means for achieving your goal. But before you begin investing, you need to nail down your risk tolerance and reconcile it with your goals. Risk tolerance places an upper limit on the rate of return you can expect to earn. So if your goal requires above-average returns, your risk tolerance must also be above average. Reconciling risk tolerance and goals requires adjusting your risk tolerance upward or adjusting your goal downward, depending on the situation you find yourself in. Your tool for this reconciliation is the investment plan, where you write down your risk tolerance and goals.

The investment plan states, with as much objectivity as possible:

• Investment categories and their allocations

• Rejected investment categories

• Target rates of return

• Intermediate goals

• General policies, such as broker selection and tax strategies

• Investment strategies including decision rules that govern buying and selling

• Procedures for evaluating your plan and goals

A well-conceived plan establishes your blueprint. The implementation of the plan consists of periodic performance reviews, usually on a semi-annual basis, and your ability to follow through with your plan. During the review, examine your plan. Does it still reflect your risk tolerance and goals? Compare each element of the plan with the status of your portfolio. Does the portfolio allocation match the plan? Have portfolio elements matched your targets? Are returns likely to achieve intermediate goals? Have you worked within your policies? Your answers to these questions will govern the implementation of your decision rules for buying and selling.

Wednesday, May 9, 2007

Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis look for a inconsistency between essential and market price -- that is, trying to buy stock that is being sold for less than it is worth. Intrinsic value is the actual value that you believe a stock to have, regardless of what it is being bought and sold for on the market. Individuals who are more comfortable with fundamental strategies use a wide array of economic, industry and corporate information to calculate the corporation's "intrinsic value." If you determine that the intrinsic value of the corporation's stock is more than its market value, it is said that a buy opportunity has presented itself.

As fundamental analysis puts importance on various of the factors underlying the price of stocks, technical analysis tends to focus on outcome data, such as the stock price itself and stock trading volume. Technical analysts believe that the stock price and other measures such as volume behave in patterns that can then be used to anticipate future price directions. Technical analysis seeks to detect patterns and discrepancies in the way the market functions in order to be able to make educated guesses about certain stocks. Technical analysts hope to "predict" market moves in order to take advantage of them quickly.

While neither come up to has proved to be superior, if you apply a consistent strategy, you will attain your goal more often than if you had no strategy at all. In other words, a necessary element for investment success is a consistent strategy based on sound principles.

Mining Annual Reports and Financial Statements for Information

• The annual report is a convenient way for the corporation to put its best foot forward. If you want to learn more about a company, this is a very good place to start. But if you've tracked the company for a while and already understand what it does and what it plans to do, you can skip all of the flashy public relations sections and go to the back of the annual report, which is where the financial statements appear.

• The balance sheet is a snapshot of a company's assets and liabilities. It helps you answer such questions as how much cash the company has available, how much debt it has assumed and how much the corporation's net worth is.

• The income statement reports revenue, expense and net income for a defined period of time. It provides answers to questions regarding the company's net income and will explain how this will affect the budget.

• The cash flow statement, in conjunction with the income statement, tells you if the company is making money. Net losses on the income statement aren't necessarily bad. Net cash outflow on the cash flow statement isn't necessarily bad. A combination of the two for an extended period of time, however, spells doom for any company.

• The analysis of financial statements relies on accounting data.

Accounting data and Ratios: Measuring the Company Pulse

How can you use the information from the financial statements to help you invest wisely? By comparing numbers to each other by means of ratios. These ratios can help you compare the company with its competitors or with its own performance in prior years. All measures should be compared with five to 10 years of historic data and with industry averages to detect if any trends to the information are present.

Profitability

• After-Tax Net Income and Net Income Per Share (after-tax net income/number of common stock shares outstanding): For corporations with seasonal business -- a predictable ebb and flow in revenues that's tied to changes in climate, holidays and vacations -- be sure to compare the same quarters across the years.

• Return On Assets (after-tax net operating income/total assets): Operating income is income earned from doing business, not the sale of assets or investment returns. This ratio is directly related to the productivity of assets, and a low ratio suggests that the company's assets have not been well managed.

• Asset Turnover (revenue/total assets): This ratio is the amount of assets the company needed in order to generate a dollar of sales.

Liquidity

• Debt to Equity (long-term debt/total equity -- current liabilities): This measures whether the corporation can satisfy its obligations to its creditors. Long-term debt shouldn't include accruals or accounts payable. It should only be IOUs that the company owes a bank, or has issued publicly to investors. Long-term debt will usually be labeled "Long Term Debt." Equity should be total stockholders' equity. The higher this ratio, the more this company relies on debt. A higher number isn't necessarily bad, but should be able to be rationally explained. If the replacement will help the company make a profit in the future, then the debt isn't so bad.

• Current Ratio (current assets/current liabilities): This ratio measures the corporation's ability to fund its current liabilities, such as day-to-day operating expenses and short-term debt. Companies with dependable cash flows can more safely maintain lower current ratios than companies without.

• Quick Ratio (cash + marketable securities + accounts receivable / current liabilities): Marketable securities are simply investments that the company has made in other companies. Marketable securities must be easily marketed, or converted into cash. So this ratio lets you evaluate at a glance how a company would fare if sales stopped. It compares cash and cash equivalents -- such as investments and sales that have been made but not converted to cash -- to current liabilities in order to measure the company's capacity to pay its current obligations and to fund its day-to-day operations.

Tuesday, May 8, 2007

Gain knowledge of Investment

Build a Solid groundwork

Investing profitably is further about position than about money. Still an looming legacy and a good-paying job offer little hope of financial success without a positive, constructive position that leads to a rational, systematic investing move toward. The solution to avoiding a stressful retirement and enjoying financial freedom starts by examining your attitudes. With a methodical self-assessment under your belt, you can begin learning sound investment fundamentals.

Earnings Profit by Considerate the Risk and Return Connection

What is amazing you do really well -- better than most people? Whatever it is, your special skill or knowledge is probably characterized by two serious characteristics:

• It's returning. Whether the return is financial or simply the satisfaction of doing something worthwhile, you profit by it in several way.

• Increasing your special skill or knowledge required some type of sacrifice.

Investment incentive is called return. Return is the financial advantage of risking your money in the market. It is expressed as "price of return." Investment sacrifice is called risk. The essence of investment risk is the chance you take that the value of your investment will decline. Investment risk is usually expressed in terms of volatility in the value of the investment. The value of some investments, such as government bonds, does not change much, so the chance of losing money is slight. On the other hand, the value of stocks issued by many Internet companies rapidly rises and falls and may not recover. After analyzing your personality and grasping the concepts behind risk and return, you are ready to tackle the one simple fact that underlies the importance of investment risk and return: they are both positively and linearly related.

In order to earn higher returns, you have to assume higher risk. If you are unwilling to accept high risk, your returns will be relatively low. In the long term, all investment securities and portfolios operate this way. The key to successful investing lies in a plan that is not only well thought-out and consistently applied, but one that accounts for and manages risk as well. A risk management plan expresses your personal tolerance for risk in terms of the kinds of investments you should own.

Reviewing Your Risk Acceptance

Your risk acceptance is about personal preferences and goals. The cornerstone of a consistently applied risk management plan lies in an assessment of your own acceptance for risk and volatility. This leads to an investment plan reflecting both your personality and tolerance. A thorough risk tolerance assessment taps two key attributes: cash flow needs and your attitude about short-term fluctuation in the value of your investments. Cash flow is money coming in and then going out for expenses. If you depend on investment income to fund your cash flow, your investments should include safe stocks and bonds paying high dividends and interest. If you depend on employment income to fund your cash flow, you can invest in riskier, low-income stocks and bonds with greater potential to grow in value over the long-term.

Your financial obligations and preferences determine cash flow needs. If you are approaching retirement, you may not currently have large cash flow needs. But upon retirement, your income source may shift from salary to earnings on your investments. It is at this moment when knowing yourself becomes extremely important, since you will be able to anticipate your reaction to seeing the value of your portfolio take occasional dives and experience long periods of no growth. By anticipating your reaction, you'll be prepared either to adjust your investment strategies or to sit back and ride out the storm.

Matching Reward Expectations with Risk Tolerance

If stock prices rise, it means the market believes profits will rise at roughly the same rate. In the long run, the economy cannot grow fast enough to sustain high double-digit profits. Therefore, stock prices could not sustain the high double-digit returns we witnessed in some recent years.

A reasonable long-term return expectation hovers between 8 and 10 percent if the investor's risk tolerance permits allocating 60 to 80 percent of the portfolio to stocks and the remainder to fixed income investments. Investors with lower risk tolerance should expect less of a return.

It can take both discipline and foresight to put money in low-risk investments. Nevertheless, a mismatch between realistic expectations and risk tolerance is a sure formula for disappointment. A well-conceived risk management plan matching risk tolerance and realistic expectations can prevent disaster while yielding respectable long-term returns.

Getting a Good Start With Sound Strategy

Monday, May 7, 2007

Why Fall In Love With Your Stocks

By: Christopher Smith



Falling in love is easy, but breaking up is so hard to do. After spending hours pouring over numerous trading opportunities, you've found the perfect stock that meets your criteria and place your trade.

During the day, you check out the share price, either smiling when it moves up, or losing that grin when it moves lower.

While we can never admit it, sometimes buying a stock is just like falling in love. We spend a long time looking for that one special someone, we get excited with every call, and sad when we can't be with them. Our heart moves on an emotional roller coaster depending on how things went on our last date.

Amazing how emotion controls us.

The problem is, when we fall in love, we overlook some of the things that would normally make us avoid either that person, or, in the case of stock market investing, a company. Before long, we're wondering how to get out without causing too much pain.

Don't fall in love with your stocks. Fall in love with your kids, your spouse and other aspects of your life, but do not fall in love with your stocks. If you want to be a successful investor, you need to remove the emotion from your trading. When you have exited your position, do a happy dance or pout if you must, but don't let any emotions cloud your ability to make decisions.
Your mind will follow your heart. It will tell you that you should hold when you should sell, and tell you to sell when you should be holding. Don't fall in love with your stocks.

Where 90% of traders get it wrong is that they convince themselves that if they are down 40% already, there will be a bounce soon. Naturally, there is a small bounce as the shorts cover their positions. This provides a small pop and now our investor is down only 30%. Now emotion sets in, and convinces our trader that the worst is behind them since the trend is moving higher. Problem is, after the bounce, there is often no buying pressure, and the share price tests recent lows, and heads lower, turning a bad situation into an even worse one.

Be smart. Don't fall in love with your stocks. Execute your plan, and then celebrate (either because you made some money, or because you avoided taking a larger loss).

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Forex Future Trading

By: uma

The profits of forex over currency futures trading are significant. The difference between the two instruments range from truth-seeking realities such as the history of each, their objective viewers, and their importance in the modern forex markets, to more concrete issues such as transactions fees, margin necessities, access to liquidity, easiness of use and the technical and educational support obtainable by sources of each service. These dissimilarities sketched below:

More Volume = Improved Liquidity. Daily money futures volume on the CME is now above 2% of the volume seen each day in the forex markets. Incomparable liquidity is one of many advantages that forex markets clutch more currency futures. The truth told this is old news. Any currency professional can tell you that cash has been king since daybreak of the modern currency markets in the early 1970's. The actual news is that individual dealers from every forex risk profile now have full right to use to the opportunities offered in the forex markets.

Forex markets give tighter bid to offer increases than currency futures markets. By reversing the futures cost to evaluate it to cash, you can willingly see that in the USD/CHF example over, inverting the futures selling price of .5894 - .5897 results in a currency price of 1.6958 - 1.6966, 8 pips vs. the 5-pip increase available in the forex currency markets.

Forex markets offer higher advantage and lower margin charge than those found in currency futures trading. When trading currency futures, buyers have one margin charge for "day" buy and sells and another for "overnight" situations. These forex margin rates can differ depending on business size. When trading cash markets, you have admission to the same margin rates day and night. Certainly, trading on margin enlarges equally your fx profits AND your losses.

Forex markets make use of easily understood and across the world used terms and cost quotes. Currency futures quotes are inversions of the cash value. For instance, if the cash price for USD/CHF is 1.7100/1.7105, the future corresponding is .5894/ .5897; a method followed only in the limits of futures trading.

Currency futures charges have the added difficulty of with an advance forex part that takes into account a time factor, interest rates and the interest disparities flanked by different currencies. The forex markets need no such changes, mathematical manipulation or thought for the interest rate factor of futures agreements.

Forex trades performed through FOREX.com are charge free*. Currency futures have the extra baggage of trading commissions, trade fees and defrayal fees.

Monday, April 30, 2007

Amazing Forex Strategy without Technical Indicators

By: krisman

Amazing Forex Strategy is one of the most important tools for all traders but most of the writers or traders said that only few traders can make money from trading. Is that true? How can you lose money while there are so many tools which can help you beat the trading!.

If you are still new to the trading there is still chance for you to make a lot of money after reading this article. I’ll try to explain here the strategy you as long as you follow the rule. I will explain How to win Forex Without Technical Indicators.

Technical Analysis is the biggest aspect that influences the trader’s mind and decision when start trading. Thousands of indicators even strategies and tricks can be easily found in many forex forums but only few make money? Right. Why do you fail using technical indicators? The answer is because technical indicators can not beat NEWS or Fundamental Analysis.

Fundamental news may cause all your technical indicators or strategy not work, this is what so many traders forget when begin trading. They use technical indicators by not considering fundamental analysis.
Herewith we will try to take a look at fundamental / news affects to your trading. So if you feel that you always lose your money, try just to follow this simple method Every week there are some NEWS that will affect the price that you must know. They are:

1. NON FARM PAYROLL
2. TRADE BALANCE
3. INTEREST RATE STATEMENTS
4. DURABLE GOOD
5. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
6. PPI excl. FOOD AND ENERGY
7. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8. CPI excl. FOOD AND ENERGY
9. TRICHET, BERNANKE, & FUKUI SPEAKS
10. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

1.NON FARM PAYROLL
Remarks :
# Pip : 100 – 200 pips
# Country : USA
# Currencies : all USD pair

2. TRADE BALANCE
Remarks :
# Pip : 70 – 120 pips
# Country : USA
# Currencies : all USD pair

3. INTEREST RATE STATEMENTS
Remarks :
# Pip : >100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

4. DURABLE GOOD
Remarks :
# Pip : 50 - 100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

5. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
Remarks :
# Pip : 50 - 60 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

6.PPI excl. FOOD AND ENERGY
Remarks :
# Pip : 50 - 100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

7.CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Remarks :
# Pip : 50 - 100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

8.CPI excl. FOOD AND ENERGY
Remarks
# Pip : 50 - 100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

9.TRICHET, BERNANKE, & FUKUI SPEAKS
Remarks
# Pip : 30 - 100 pips
# Country : E-12, USA, & JPN
# Currencies : EURO, USD, & JPY

10.UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Remarks
# Pip : 30 - 50 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

All the above news can be seen in this following site, It is clearly explained what news to be released in the week and we have to bookmark this page to make us easier to look at the News everyday. There are many sites now providing traders with News that we have to bookmark.

How can we start trading the news?

TIPS 1 : NON FARM PAYROLL (NFP)
The Great in Forex Trading

Check your calendar news this month, you don’t have to take care of what news to be released. Just remember that Every Friday of each month the above news will be released at 12.30 GMT.

The effect of this news is really big (100 -200 pis) only in a few minutes. So lets try to put the TRAP against the price direction.

Strategy

- Before the news released, do not trade, but just be prepared to trade on Brit / USD.
- 30 minutes before the news, open your
- Metatrader (Your chart station) with 30 minutes chart.
- Look at current price.
- BUY STOP at 20 pips above current price,
(example current price is 1.9050, so you put BUY STOP at 1.9070)
- At the same time SELL STOP at 20 pips below current price, (example current price is 1.9050, so you put SELL STOP at 1.9030)
- Cancel one of them it the price starts touching the charts.
- Set Take profit 100 pips
- Set trailing stop 15.

Trading on this news once a month will make you profit at least 100 pips without technical analysis. What you want to see is the schedule for that news on every month of the first Friday.

For the other news you can do the same thing, and I am sure that every week you will make good profit without technical analysis that usually make traders confused and finally loose the trade.
Happy trading.

Krisman Situmorang
http://forex-winning.blogspot.com

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Profitable Forex Strategies and Techniques.

By: Nathaniel

This article is mostly for people that already know what the Forex market is and at least know the basic concepts.

If you have no clue about what this market is or you have never heard about it, I will give you a very brief

explanation bellow.

Forex is the acronym for Foreign Exchange Market. This is the biggest and most liquid market of the entire world

today. One to three trillion dollars exchange hands at Forex every day. That’s a huge amount of money. No stock

market exchange of any country come close to this.

This market is huge. It is a sea of money full of sharks and dangerous waters, but it is also the only market where

you at least hypothetically can make $1,000,000 in two weeks starting with only $1,000.

I say hypothetically because what happens often is that people blindly gamble their money at Forex without knowing

anything about it and they lose their shirt. That’s why I say to you: be careful! This market is profitable, but you

need to learn the basics well, do your homework and demo trade a lot.

Just remember that 95% of traders lose money, 5% make it and less than 1% become rich at Forex. The nice thing about

this market is that you can make money without creating any product or service, selling anything, nor advertising.

You just trade some cash and get paid depending on your knowledge and expertise.

This is the market where banks, transnational corporations and individual traders exchange one currency for another.

I am talking about the spot Forex market. You can trade at huge leverage as much as 400 to 1, meaning that for every

dollar that you have for trading you can trade 400. For example if you have $1,000 on your account you can trade as

much as $400,000.

This is dangerous. Most experienced traders won’t use such a high leverage. In the other hand, high leverage can be

good if you learn how to use it in your favor. Anyway, that’s enough for the basics. If you want to learn more about

how this market emerged, its history and so, then read my other articles.

Now let’s talk about the strategies and how some traders make money at Forex. Let’s start by saying that what works

for me may not necessary work for you. Trading currencies is risky. That’s a fact. But ultimately I discovered a few

strategies that could give novice traders a winning edge.

Trading Forex is not as easy as most people think. Today you may be earning a lot and tomorrow you are losing 40% of

your starting capital. Novice traders often make the same mistakes over and over again. I will enumerate a few of

them bellow.

1. Do not look for a holly grail of trading.

This is for people who are afraid to lose or are too greedy and want to get rich quick. Even when it seems so, The

Forex Market is not the place to get rich quick. Yes, you can make a lot of money over time and yes you don’t have

to sell anything, nor create or advertise any products. Still you have to learn a whole lot about what makes this

market tick and what moves the price of the currencies plus how to manage your money effectively so you don’t lose

your shirt.

Many novice traders spend a LOT of time searching a perfect strategy that will allow them to always win-win and

never lose. They want to have guaranteed profits because they can’t stand to lose and/or they want to make too much

(millions) quick so they can retire fast and buy a mansion in a far distant beautiful tropical island. It doesn’t

happen.

Don’t waist your time. A trading strategy that allows you to have guaranteed profits do not exist. Trading is very

risky. That’s why it is so profitable. Remember: “no risk, no reward.” So, do not try to always win on every trade.

It is simply not possible. There is no way to get rid of the fact of uncertainty. What I mean is that no matter how

effective your trading strategy may be, sometimes it will fail and you have to be ready to face this fact.

By not trying to find a perfect strategy that turns you into a millionaire fast, you will just save a ton of your

own time and efforts. It doesn’t exist. If you find it, please don’t tell me about it. First I won’t believe you.

Second I don’t need it. You will find out bellow why I say that I won’t need it.

2. Use technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

When I started trading I didn’t believe in this. I wanted to find a strategy which consisted of money management

alone (which I explain bellow). This is not good! Money management is important but you still need the other two.

You define (“predict”) where the market is heading to depending on how effective your technical and fundamental

strategies are.

Mastering technical analysis is the ability to predict future price movements by analyzing past price data and

graphical patterns. You get a graphic of certain currencies. Check the data that you observe and based on your

knowledge of technical analysis you “predict” with certain degree of accuracy where the market is going.

Many brokers allow you to add technical indicators to the graphs while you are trading. You can try this on a demo

account and see how well you are able to define the future price movement of the currencies you plan to trade. One

of those brokers is www.oanda.com.

There are many technical indicators. I can’t tell which one will be more effective for you. Every trader is

different. This is something that you will have to discover by yourself. There is not a hidden secret or magic

formula for trading Forex. It is what you do every minute when you are in front of the graphics and checking the

news what really counts.

The secret is in your overall knowledge and your decisions. This comes with experience and practice. If you open an

account with one of these online brokers you can trade on paper before you trade with real money, so you can learn

and practice before you risk any capital.

Let me tell you about a few technical indicators that you can use. You can use the MACD (Moving average convergence

divergence), the Bollinger Bands, Pivot Points, RSI, Stochastic, Fibonacci, EMA, Elliot Waves and many others. There

are in fact many technical indicators but these are among the most widely known and used.

When you add technical indicators to the graphic the brokers software will automatically perform mathematical

calculations to reveal interesting facts and patterns about the graphics that you can’t readily see without said

indicators. You can use the technical indicators to create your own technical systems.

These systems will never work 100% of the time, but if they work 70% - 80% it may be enough. That’s because you can

control your risks with money management techniques as I describe bellow.

To further increase your probability of winning and reduce your probability of losing on every trade you can use

fundamental analysis. I think that most traders choose one or the other but many traders use both.

Fundamental analysis is to trade the news. What is going on with the countries’s economies of the currencies that

you are trading? What is the unemployment index? Did something suddenly happen that could drastically affect the

price of the currencies?

Trading the news is another effective way to “predict” where the market is going. Many online brokers offer you a

link with important financial news. For example www.oanda.com has this feature. You can also find financial news on

the following websites: Bloomberg,businessweek,economist,money.cnn,markets.ft,reuters and fxstreet.com

3. Use money management strategies.

You need money management techniques. This is what makes you or breaks you. Put it this way, most traders invest far

too much of their trading capital on every trade. It is as follows . . . “Expect to make too much and you will make

too little, expect to make little and you will make a lot.”

What does it mean? It means that if you try to make a fortune on every trade you will lose your shirt. If you expect

to make a little on every trade and you compound your profits, you may make a lot of money over the long run.

The first rule of money management says that you should not risk more than 1% of the money that you have on your

account. You control this risk with stop loss and limit orders. When you start trading this may seem as little

profits specially if you start with little trading capital. In the other hand if you compound some or all of your

profits you may increase your account exponentially over time.

The magic of compound interest is amazing! This is the way that most fortunes are created on the financial markets,

little by little. If you gamble your money you may lose it fast.

Many traders do exactly the opposite. Imagine that you open an account with $5,000 and you enter a trade for $1,000.

Let’s say that the market moves against you and you lose those $1,000. Now you have $4,000 on your account. You

think that the price for the currencies is too low, so it should recover. In fact you are pretty sure that it will

come back.

Then you invest $1,500 to recover from the previous loss plus realize a $500 profit. The market moves again against

you. It kept going in the same direction, something that you didn’t expected. What happens? Now you have $2,500 on

your account. That’s 50% of your initial trading capital. It will be very hard for you to recover from that loss.

In the other hand, if you risk 1% of your money on every trade, you will have $4,900 on your account after that

initial loss. It will be much easier for you to recover from those trades.

The second rule of money management is to expect always to receive more profits than the money that you risk to

lose. This can be accomplished through limit and stop orders as well as trailing stops.

For example if you expect to make a 25 pips profits on every trade, then you put the stop order at 15 pips bellow or

above your entry price. A better way to have a greater expectancy ratio is to use trailing stops as I describe

above. A trailing stop allows you to cut the loses short and let your winners ride.

These are the basic techniques that a successful trader should use to generate consistent profits at the Forex

Market. This is basic information, but I realize that many people out there don’t even know what Forex is, so I

didn’t want to get into more complex strategies here. You will find information about complex and advanced Forex strategies on my website.EasyWebRiches.com © 2006

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Trading Psychology: Mistakes in a Trading Environment.

By: Raul Lopez


When it comes to trading, one of the most neglected subjects are those dealing with trading psychology. Most traders spend days, months and even years trying to find the right system. But having a system is just part of the game. Don’t get us wrong, it is very important to have a system that perfectly suits the trader, but it is as important as having a money management plan, or to understand all psychology barriers that may affect the trader decisions and other issues. In order to succeed in this business, there must be equilibrium between all important aspects of trading.

In the trading environment, when you lose a trade, what is the first idea that pops up in your mind? It would probably be, “There must be something wrong with my system”, or “I knew it, I shouldn’t have taken this trade” (even when your system signaled it). But sometimes we need to dig a little deeper in order to see the nature of our mistake, and then work on it accordingly.

When it comes to trading the Forex market as well as other markets, only 5% of traders achieve the ultimate goal: to be consistent in profits. What is interesting though is that there is just a tiny difference between this 5% of traders and the rest of them. The top 5% grow from mistakes; mistakes are a learning experience, they learn an invaluable lesson on every single mistake made. Deep in their minds, a mistake is one more chance to try it harder and do it better the next time, because they know they might not get a chance the next time. And at the end, this tiny difference becomes THE big difference.

Mistakes in the trading environment

Most of us relate a trading mistake to the outcome (in terms of money) of any given trade. The truth is, a mistake has nothing to do with it, mistakes are made when certain guidelines are not followed. When the rules you trade by are violated. Take for instance the following scenarios:

First scenario: The system signals a trade.
1.Signal taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.
Experience gained: Its good to follow the system, if I do this consistently the odds will turn in my favor. Confidence is gained in both the trader and the system.
Mistake made: None.

2. Signal taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Negative, lost money.
Experience gained: It is impossible to win every single trade, a loosing trade is just part of the business; our raw material, we know we can’t get them all right. Even with this lost trade, the trader is proud about himself for following the system. Confidence in the trader is gained.
Mistake made: None.

3. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: Frustration, the trader always seems to get in trades that turned out to be loosing trades and let the profitable trades go away. Confidence is lost in the trader self.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when the system signaled it.

4. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: The trader will start to think “hey, I’m better than my system”. Even if the trader doesn't think on it consciously, the trader will rationalize on every signal given by the system because deep in his or her mind, his or her “feeling” is more intelligent than the system itself. From this point on, the trader will try to outguess the system. This mistake has catastrophic effects on our confidence to the system. The confidence on the trader turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when system signaled it

Second Scenario: System does not signal a trade.
1. No trade is taken
Outcome of the trade: Neutral
Experience gained: Good discipline, we only need to take trades when the odds are in our favor, just when the system signals it. Confidence gained in both the trader self and the system.
Mistake made: None

2. A trade is taken, turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.
Experience gained: This mistake has the most catastrophic effects in the trader self, the system and most importantly in the trader’s trading career. You will start to think you need no system, you know better from them all. From this point on, you will start to trade based on what you think. Confidence in the system is totally lost. Confidence in the trader self turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system.

3. A trade is taken, turned out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: negative, lost money.
Experience gained: The trader will rethink his strategy. The next time, the trader will think it twice before getting in a trade when the system does not signal it. The trader will go “Ok, it is better to get in the market when my system signals it, only those trade have a higher probability of success”. Confidence is gained in the system.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system

As you can see, there is absolutely no correlation between the outcome of the trade and a mistake. The most catastrophic mistake even has a positive trade outcome, made money, but this could be the beginning of the end of the trader’s career. As we have already stated, mistakes must only be related to the violation of rules a trader trades by.

All these mistakes were directly related to the signals given by a system, but the same is applied when getting out of a trade. There are also mistakes related to following a trading plan. For example, risking more money on a given trade than the amount the trader should have risked and many more.

Most mistakes can be avoided by first having a trading plan. A trading plan includes the system: the criteria we use to get in and out the market, the money management plan: how much we will risk on any given trade, and many other points. Secondly, and most important, we need to have the discipline to follow strictly our plan. We created our plan when no trade was placed on, thus no psychology barriers were up front. So, the only thing we are certain about is that if we follow our plan, the decision taken is on our best interests, and in the long run, these decisions will help us have better results. We don’t have to worry about isolated events, or trades that could had give us better results at first, but then they could have catastrophic results in our trading career.

How to deal with mistakes

There are many possible ways to properly manage mistakes. We will suggest the one that works better for us.

Step one: Belief change.
Every mistake is a learning experience. They all have something valuable to offer. Try to counteract the natural tendency of feeling frustrated and approach mistakes in a positive manner. Instead of yelling to everyone around and feeling disappointed, say to yourself “ok, I did something wrong, what happened? What is it?

Step two: Identify the mistake made.
Define the mistake, find out what caused the mistake, and try as hard as you can to effectively see the nature of that mistake. Finding the mistake nature will prevent you from making the same mistake again. More than often you will find the answer where you less expected. Take for instance a trader that doesn’t follow the system. The reason behind this could be that the trader is afraid of loosing. But then, why is he or she afraid? It could be that the trader is using a system that does not fit him or her, and finds difficult to follow every signal. In this case, as you can see, the nature of the mistake is not in the surface. You need to try as hard as you can to find the real reason of the given mistake.

Step three: Measure the consequences of the mistake.
List the consequences of making that particular mistake, both good and bad. Good consequences are those that make us better traders after dealing with the mistake. Think on all possible reasons you can learn from what happened. For the same example above, what are the consequences of making that mistake? Well, if you don’t follow the system, you will gradually loose confidence in it, and this at the end will put you into trades you don’t really want to be, and out of trades you should be in.

Step four: Take action.
Taking proper action is the last and most important step. In order to learn, you need to change your behavior. Make sure that whatever you do, you become “this-mistake-proof”. By taking action we turn every single mistake into a small part of success in our trading career. Continuing with the same example, redefining the system would be the trader’s final step. The trader would put a system that perfectly fits him or her, so the trader doesn’t find any trouble following it in future signals.

Understanding the fact that the outcome of any trade has nothing to do with a mistake will open your mind to other possibilities, where you will be able to understand the nature of every mistake made. This at the same time will open the doors for your trading career as you work and take proper action on every mistake made.

The process of success is slow, and plenty of times it is attributed to repeated mistakes made and the constant struggle to get past these mistakes, working on them accordingly. How we deal with them will shape our future as a trader, and most importantly as a person.

Raul Lopez is a full time Forex trader and founder of www.straightforex.com a high quality Forex training company.

Sunday, April 22, 2007

Currency Trading Tips For Beginners

By: Mark Freeman

Currency trading is a platform where individuals speculate on the exchange rate between two currencies. Traders buy and sell currencies hoping to realize a profit. In order to succeed in currency trading you will need a source of accurate and timely information. You'll need to familiarize yourself with a whole new language.

When you start currency trading you'll learn what a market trend is and how it will affect your trading. Trends move up, down and sideways. There are also trend classifications within market trends. These classifications are intermediate, short-term and long-term trend. You'll learn how to look at and understand basic trend lines, which is the most valuable trading. You'll learn about channel lines and support levels.

When you enter currency trading you'll be able to make sales online 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, unlike the Stock Market. Many online brokers offer commission free trading and you'll want to make sure that you have instant execution of your market orders.

A new addition to many currency trading online business sites is the ability to set up a free demo account. This is a good way to get practice about trading and learn about live quotes, charts and streaming news before you start investing with real money.

When you set up your demo account it's a good time to test the software that the company offers. If you don't like the software program, contact the company and see how similar it is to the software program you would get if you signed a contract with them. If you don't like the software program try another broker. Also, decide if you want web based or client based software. Web based software is housed on your brokers website, you won't have to install any software onto your computer. A web based software program will allow you to log in from any computer that has an internet connection. Client based software is loaded onto your computer, and can only be accessed from that computer, potentially limiting your usage.

Another thing you'll want to check before choosing an online broker is how quickly they respond to your need for help. Seeing how quickly they respond to your questions could be key in how they respond to customer needs. If you don't get a speedy and accurate reply you may not want to trust them with your business.

You'll need to have high speed internet connection in order to succeed in currency trading online. The currency trading market is a fast moving one and dial up internet access will not work well for this. Another consideration could be the location of the servers used by your broker. If your broker's servers are located quite a distance from you, say in another country, this could potentially slow down your transmissions.

Take you time and investigate online brokers. Talk with friends and family about their dealings with online brokers. Take time and do a thorough evaluation of your options before you trust anyone with your money.

Article Source: http://www.articles411.com

This article courtesy of www.currency-guide.com

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Fundamental Analysis for Trading Stocks

Fundamental analysis, the study of profits, revenue, income, assets, etc. etc. It was the mainstay of stock market investing for decades and decades.

Finding a diamond in the rough, was what investors looked for, it is what mutual fund managers use today as their main tool. It is what is done by hundreds, if not thousands of brokerage houses, stock market investor services, and mutual fund managers every day of their lives . Numbers poured over, fed into software programs, then analyzed again.

So much so that there is not one single fundamental analysis surprise left to be found in large cap stocks. That is so fundamental to the success of our large cap philosophy (www.livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com) that it bears repeating again.

There is nothing new to be learned in fundamental analysis of large cap stocks. Everything is already known. I suppose we should thank the countless analysts who put in countless hours fundamentally analyzing the numbers for us so we don’t have to. Because without them, we would have no beginning point. So is that to say fundamental analysis has a purpose? Of course it does. Do we use it? You bet. It is one of the first things we do use. We use in it screens, and we also use analyst’s recommendations that are based largely on fundamental analysis.

We buy no stock without corroboration of analyst’s reports, and many of our screens have an analyst’s reports factor to them. So in a sense fundamental analysis is THE most important factor of our selecting stocks. Without a good report from fundamental folks, we don’t look any further at the stock. We know stock analysts also have opinions about where the market is heading, and about the sectors as well. We like that too. We want to be where the action is.

An exceptional fundamental stock will not move, if people are not focusing on it. And there is the rub with fundamental analysis, and that is why fundamentalist either make lousy traders or don’t believe in trading. They are long term investors, philosophically superior to technicians in their way of thought. But stocks only move if they are the focus of traders. (traders for our purposes could be mid-term speculators as well, which frankly is probably where we fit in.)

So reading an analyst report, or with large caps you get the benefit of a pool of analyst’s reports, gives you an idea whether or not the stock will be moving in the near future (3-6 months.)

A stock that is rated a hold is likely not to do much of anything rather than track the market or the sector. A stock that is rated a sell, likely has already tanked. But a stock that is rated a buy, is worthy of a technical look. Do we analyze rates of growth, % of debt, stuff like that? Nope, it has already been done. Our job is to find the hot sectors, and the hot large cap stocks in that sector.

And then take those and see if they are poised to move.. Long term moves of an individual stock or the market in whole is a process of thought. But every wiggle and waggle along the way is a process of emotion. A stock poised to rise, based on solid fundamental analysis also needs to have emotion behind it, to actually rise in our time frame.

We are not interested in holding a stock with 15% growth rates for a year to see if that results in a 15% stock price increase. The fact of the matter is that stock is going to rise and/or fall 15% in a year’s time no matter what. But if we know that it has received high marks for it’s fundamentals, and then look at its charts and see technically it is also very healthy then we have something.

A stock that does not fair well through analyst’s reports is not even worhty of our looking at its’ chart. There are so many options in large cap stocks that we want EVERY advantage we can get. We want every selection to be a winner. When your average trade only nets you 4%, you cannot afford to be wrong